Thursday, May 7, 2009

In anticipation of the ECB decision

All expect the ECB's Governing Council today, will reduce the main refinancing rate by 25 bp to 1.00%. Euro-EONIA interest rate includes a 100 percent chance of such a decision. Interest rate on deposits is likely to remain unchanged at 0.25%, although in this respect there is some uncertainty: some members of the governing council were in favor of the conservation corridor in the 100 bp In addition, market participants expect the ECB announced the "non-standard measures, among which, first, the possible increase in the period of the repo auction. Secondly, the purchase of commercial paper with immediate payment, even though one of the members rejected the proposal, as well as commercial paper market in Europe is relatively small, while others expressed their concerns over the increase in the monetary base. And third, the ECB can make the purchase of corporate securities with immediate payment. And fourthly, that it was unlikely the ECB can make the purchase of state. EMU bond with immediate payment, even though, according to the EU Convention, the financing of budget deficits is prohibited. Other measures, which goes a lot of talking, it is unlikely, except for verbal intervention in the form of commitment to maintain low interest rates for a certain period of time.

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