Aggressive dollar / yen sellers could return to the market

To begin with, that our prediction was confirmed yesterday - the breakdown of the level of resistance 90.80, resulted in increasing bullish sentiment and the growth of quotations in the region of local maxima, but near the 91.50 level upward movement has slowed down and began selling the dollar / yen, which are still going on ...

USD / JPY

Now look at the indicators:

Exchange rate is below the moving averages with periods of 89 and 144, which are strong levels of support for 90.90 and 90.20/00, but above average with periods of 55 and 34 - resistance levels 91.20/30 and 91.50 respectively.

The MACD histogram is located in the negative zone, began to decline in the near future may cross its signal line downwards, and thereby generate a signal to sell the dollar / yen.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and has already formed such a signal as the% K line crossed the line% D top-down and start to fall below it.

Therefore, as a confirmation that the market can return the aggressive sellers of dollar / yen, it remained only to wait for the breakdown level of support to 90.90/80, which could open the way for the bears to the levels of 90.20/00 and 89.40.

Resistance Levels: 91.00, 91.30/50, 91.80, 92.00/10, 92.50, 92.70, 93.00

Current price: 90.96

Levels of support: 90.90/80, 90.50, 90.20/00, 89.70, 89.50, 89.30, 89.10/00

Euro / dollar remains under pressure

A pleasant surprise from the report, Chicago PMI, as well as a slightly higher rate of index of consumer sentiment for October, the University of Michigan failed to inspire the bulls in the euro / dollar for a new assault attempt. Euro is currently continuing pressingovat session lows, and while the bids around $ 1.4780/70 while holding back a couple of further fall, dealers are reminded of feet below, and pay attention to the rebalancing of the positions of market participants at the end of the week and month. They note that investors have left a large amount of long positions in the euro, and see the risks to decline to $ 1.4760/50 and $ 1.4730/20.

Dollar / yen. The second day of trading does not go far beyond the relatively narrow price range of 91.70-92.30

Drawing attention to the 4 hours chart, we can see that a pronounced uptrend continues, but at the same time, the second day of trading does not go far beyond the relatively narrow price range of 91.70-92.30

USD / JPY

Current price levels are still located above the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which is directed upwards and point to the continuing bullish sentiment.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but has crossed its signal line from the top down, continues to gradually decline, and thus formed a signal to sell the dollar / yen.

Stochastic Oscillator out of the overbought zone and formed the same signal as the% K line began to fall below the% D.

Therefore, just as yesterday, we expect that the correction will continue and increase, if it is punctured by the level of support 91.30, which could open the way for the bears to the levels of 90.80 and 90.40.

Levels of resistance: 92.00/10, 92.50, 92.70, 93.00

Current price: 91.95

Support levels: 91.70, 91.50, 91.00, 90.70, 90.50, 90.20/00

Growth of dollar / yen has slowed down near the level of 92.20

Let's start with the fact that our previous forecast was confirmed at the auctions on Friday the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against the Japanese yen, but the upward movement has slowed down near the 92.20 level and has started a correction, which is still going on ...

USD / JPY

Current price levels are still located above the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which is directed upwards and point to the continuing bullish sentiment.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but their attempts to cross the signal line downwards, and thereby generate a signal to sell the dollar / yen.

Stochastic Oscillator out of the overbought zone and has already formed such a signal, since the beginning of the% K line falls below the% D.

Therefore, we expect that the correction will continue and increase, if it is punctured by the level of support 91.30, which could open the way for the bears to the levels of 90.80 and 90.40.

At the same time we must not forget that the aggressive buyers of the dollar / yen can return to the market, if would be punctured 92.20 resistance level.

Levels of resistance: 92.00/10, 92.50, 92.70, 93.00

Current price: 91.76

Support levels: 91.50, 91.00, 90.70, 90.50, 90.20/00

The second week of trading on the dollar / franc did not go far beyond the price range 1.0030-1.0110

Drawing attention to the 4 hours chart, we can see that already the second week of trading on the dollar / franc did not go far beyond the price range of 1.0030-1.0110. Based on what we can conclude that short-term uncertainty of market participants remains

USD/CHF

Current price level is located below the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which are directed downward and point to the continuing bearish sentiment.

The MACD histogram is located in the negative zone, above its signal line, continues to slowly increase and thus generates a signal to buy the dollar / franc.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and gives the opposite message, as the% K line crossed the line% D top-down and start to fall below it.

The contradiction in the signals that feed the indicators as well as the fact that the trades are in the range, leads us to the fact that the most correct decision now - to stay out of the market and wait for the completion of consolidation in the range 1.0030-1.0110.

There are two possible developments:

1. Break of 1.0110 resistance level and the correction to the levels of 1.0170 and 1.0220.

2. Break of 1.0030 support level and the reduction of quotations to the levels of 0.9970 and 0.9930/00.

Resistance levels: 1.0090, 1.0120, 1.0150, 1.0170, 1.0200/20

Current Price: 1.0058

Support levels: 1.0050, 1.0030, 1.0000, 0.9970, 0.9950, 0.9930/00

Slowly but surely, the U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen

Drawing attention to the 4 hours chart, you will notice that for the second consecutive day, continuing the slow but steady growth (after the currency was able to penetrate the upper limit of the symmetrical triangle) of the American dollar against the Japanese yen

USD/JPY

Current price levels are still located above the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which is directed upwards and point to the continuing bullish sentiment.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, located above its signal line, continues to rise and thus sends a signal to buy the dollar / yen.

Stochastic Oscillator re-entered the overbought zone and formed a similar signal, since the beginning of the% K line rises above the% D.

Therefore, we expect that growth in dollar / yen will continue, but the immediate goal of bulls is located on 92.50.

Levels of resistance: 92.00/10, 92.50, 92.70, 93.00

Support levels: 91.50, 91.00, 90.70, 90.50, 90.20/00

Japanese yen is under sales pressure

The U.S. dollar may be in a more advantageous position due to recent concerns about the recovery of the world economy, which is not the Japanese yen. Analysts said Commerzbank, the reason may lie in the fact that the Japanese currency is under pressure from the general sales due to the increasing amount of negative currency transactions carry trade. Since the beginning of October 2-year swap spreads have increased to nearly 20 bp, while spreads between Australia and Japan over the same period increased by almost 50 bps Analysts said the bank, the increase in spreads would lead to the resumption of purchases denominated in foreign currency bonds by Japanese investors, thus, the pace of repatriation of capital, observed in recent years to slow down. Pair dollar / yen has established today a new one-month maximum at 91.58, the euro / yen reached a 2-month high at around 137.10. Now the dollar / yen is trading at 91.32, the euro / yen - at 136.76.

The Growth of dollar / yen may continue to levels of 91.60 and 92.50

At 4 hours chart show how to bid on Thursday, the exchange rate was able to penetrate the upper limit of the descending triangle, and then a strong resistance level at 90.20/40, which led to increased growth and bullish sentiment quotations to a level of 91.20.

USD/JPY

Current price level is above the moving averages with periods of 144, 89, 55 and 34.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, crossed its signal line upwards, continues to rise and thus generates a signal to buy the dollar / yen.

Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone and does not give clear signals as% K line crossed with a line of% D.

Therefore, as a confirmation that the increase in the dollar / yen continue, you must wait for the breakdown level of resistance 91.20, which may open the way for bulls to the levels of 91.60 and 92.50.

Resistance Levels: 91.20, 91.50, 91.80, 92.00/10, 92.50, 92.70, 93.00

Current price: 91.09

Support levels: 90.70, 90.50, 90.20/00, 89.70, 89.50, 89.30, 89.10/00

The positive news and comment from New Zealand and Australia strengthened the downtrend of the dollar

While the currency markets wavered, hesitating to jump into a train of risk on the New York session, Wall Street took the bull by the horns, and the DJIA index Breaks at 10 000 points for the first time since October 2008. Euro and the Australian dollar managed to reach cyclical highs against the U.S. dollar, however, the decline of U.S. T-bills after the publication of the protocol of the Federal Committee on Open Market (FOMC) samortizirovalo falling dollar / yen.

According to the protocol, the committee members cautious in assessing the prospects for economic recovery. They recognize that it has already begun, but will be "quite moderate." Also at the meeting, the committee discussed the fate of the program purchase securities secured by mortgage, and some members expressed their willingness to extend the program, which initially led to increased sales of the dollar. However, later in a statement it was said that some representatives of the committee suggested that the program is gradually reduced to nothing and the complete cessation of purchase of assets by the end of the year. Circle. In general, the emphasis of the application was that the Fed still intends to pursue a "low interest rates for an extended period of time."

With regard to statistics, the U.S. came out strong data. Total retail sales for the month decreased by 1,5%, since the effect of the program "lumber for NAL" passed, but sales excluding automobiles unexpectedly rose by 0,5%. Costs of the population in the 3 rd quarter increased 3%, whereas the ratio of inventories and sales sank to 11-month low. British statistics again pleasing to the eye, and the mood in the market has risen so much that started in a real hunt for the top stop-loss on the pound. But statistics from the eurozone has disappointed. Industrial production grew by only 0,9% against the forecast of 1,2%, although the players there and then forgotten about it and began actively buying up euros in a falling dollar.

In the Asian session, the mood in the markets shaped the news from neighboring countries. The first catalyst was a report on inflation in New Zealand. Consumer price inflation in the third quarter grew by 1.3% quarter / quarter and 1.7% y / y against the backdrop of rising prices for food, fuel and local rates. This unexpected increase in inflation, coupled with the rise of the production activity of New Zealand in September for the first time in the past 17 months may be a strong base for the RBNZ to abandon its policy of monetary easing is already at the next meeting, and it helped New Zealand dollar approaching close to 15-month highs.

Next came the Australian dollar, when the chairman of the RBA Stevens delivered a speech titled "Keeping monetary policy during the crisis and the economic recovery," which stated that the central bank can not afford to falter in the case of interest rate increase, given that the risks to the economy failed to materialize. So he thought it would be reasonable if they change the extreme policies of the low rates to more neutral, although he did not go into details. The yield on the Australian Securities began to grow rapidly after these comments, and the Australian dollar exchange rate recorded a new 14-month maximum above the level of 0,92.

Movement in these countries affected the dynamics of the other major pairs to a lesser extent, although the euro came even closer to the psychological mark of 1.50 dollars, the pound has overcome the resistance of 1,6025-30.

Currently scheduled several interesting reports in the U.S. in research production activity in two main regions (the index and the Empire State FRB of Philadelphia), and the primary applications for unemployment benefits for which data indicate a slight improvement on the housing front, while the level applications are still high. According to forecasts, the results of this week, not much will be different from the results of last week at the level of 520 thousand is also the focus will report on inflation, especially given the unexpected performance in other parts of the world.

Saxo Bank

RBS: the weakening of the dollar may continue

According to currency analysts Royal Bank of Scotland, dollar decline may continue against the backdrop of rumors that within a certain time in Fed not be necessary to raise interest rates. Yesterday's speech Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn can be regarded as "absolute suppression of the recent more aggressive comments. The bank believes that the statements of Kona can be interpreted as follows: "Of course, we can raise the stakes and, if necessary, rather quickly, but most likely we do not have such a need arises, at least for some time." Bank analysts believe that such an attitude in the heart of decision-making at the Fed indicates that the overall downward trend in the U.S. currency has to continue.

The dollar / franc.Trades still held in the range of 1.0240-1.0350

Current price level is located below the moving averages with periods of 21, 34, 55 and 89, which are now strong resistance levels 1.0290 and 1.0310/20.

The MACD histogram crossed the zero line from the top down, now located in the negative zone below its signal line, continues to gradually decline, and thereby generates a signal to sell the dollar / franc.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone and does not give clear signals, as the% K line crossed with a line of% D.

So, like last Thursday, as evidence that the market intensified bearish sentiment, it is necessary to wait for the breakdown level of support to 1.0240/30, which could open the way to a local minimum of 1.0180.

If the same level of support 1.0240/30 and will not be punctured, the consolidation in the above specified range will continue.

Resistance levels: 1.0290, 1.0310/20, 1.0350, 1.0370, 1.0400/10, 1.0430/50

Current Price: 1.0272

Support levels: 1.0240/30, 1.0210/00, 1.0170, 1.0150, 1.0120, 1.0100

Euro / dollar trying to develop the upward momentum

Euro / dollar is trying to break higher against the backdrop of yield data from the U.S., were slightly better than analysts' forecasts, but so far upward momentum is not too large. Now the pair is at around 1.4622. According to dealers, below $ 1.4600 indicated demand from sovereign accounts. Nevertheless, for the development of upward movement is necessary that the pair broke the region $ 1.4640/50 ($ 1.4650 - the level of the expiration of the option), and then the Asian session highs near $ 1.4655. Offer located at $ 1.4670, stops are near $ 1.4680.

Stone and McCarthy: the restoration of the euro should be confirmed

Although short-term trend in the euro / dollar bearish, it is corrective in nature rather than impulsive, with such a view does not exclude the pair falling to $ 1.4447. In the short term break week downtrend channel to ease pressure on the single currency, but in order to be able to talk about the possibility of more active growth (the fourth wave of growth from $ 1.3834), bulls need a confident break above $ 1.4674.

Resistance
$ 1.4723 61.8% from the movement of $ 1.4844 - $ 1.4527, the area of consolidation
50% $ 1.4686 $ 1.4844 from motion - $ 1.4527,
$ 1.4674 neckline of the head and shoulders on the hourly chart

Current euro / dollar: $ 1.4633

Support:
$ 1.4601 20-day moving average
$ 1.4576 former resistance of the channel, at least on Sept. 30
$ 1.4527 at least September 29

TD Securities: U.S. / Canada is still in the range

In the past few weeks, couple dollar / Canada with enviable regularity has been testing the boundaries of the two-month range near the levels of C $ 1.0600 and C $ 1.1100. According to currency analysts TD Securities, in the near future this trend will continue. The bank believes that there is a high probability that within the next week or two dollar / Canada will again test the upper limit trading range in C $ 1.1100. As part of the broader perspectives of bank analysts believe that the general downtrend of the dollar will remain in force, and the bank does not exclude the likelihood of a sharp drop in U.S. currency before the end of this year. At the moment pair dollar / Canada is trading at C $ 1.0863.

Analysts advise selling the euro / pound

The stagnation of the euro / pound in the past few days, and his gradual decline from recent highs does not inspire optimism, some analysts who see the risks that the couple, who currently holds around stg0.9033, will continue to correction after the recent rapid growth. This point of view, in particular, hold a currency strategist BTMU, who counsel attempts to use the growth of a single currency for sales with the expectation of a decline in the short term. At UBS, meanwhile, believe that in the run-up to the nearest meeting of the MPC, which is scheduled for early next month, the British currency is likely to remain under pressure, but in general, they expect the Bank of England will give market participants more clearly understand their position, and advised to seek opportunities for sales of euro / pound.

Bank of New York Mellon: pound at a crossroads

Once the bulls become convinced that Ofer of $ 1.6350/60 were too large to overcome their first attempt, pound felt the weakening of interest in the purchase and planned lower as a result he now holds about $ 1.6320. The nearest support it receives bids close to the figure, while the following series of orders to buy are around $ 1.6285/80 with a greater concentration in the area of $ 1.6360. Currency strategists Bank of New York Mellon does not rule out further attempts to growth, noting that the main resistance is around $ 1.6480, but note that while the question of whether the rebound from the $ 1.6110 the beginning of a new wave of growth or the couple will resume fall, remains open. They note that in the long-term charts have the risk of head and shoulders, and to break below $ 1.6110 will open road to $ 1.5980 and $ 1.5800, while the ultimate goal of a reversal pattern is the area around $ 1.5000.

Rabobank predicts the strengthening of the dollar coupled with the Japanese yen

Over the past two days, the U.S. dollar strengthened across the spectrum of the market, coupled with the Japanese yen is back in the region above 92.00, after falling last Wednesday to seven months a minimum of 90.15, and, according to currency analysts Rabobank, over the next 12 months, the U.S. currency will retain positive. The bank believes that within a month pair dollar / yen will reach 93.00 by the end of the year will rise to 94.00. With regard to the prospects for 2010, analysts predict a further strengthening of the bank's U.S. dollar: in the first quarter of next year, the bank expected growth in the dollar / yen to a level of 95.00 in the second quarter - to 100.00, and by the end of the third quarter, believe in the bank, a couple of will be traded at 102.00. At the moment the dollar / yen is at around 92.33.

Morgan Stanley: the real exchange rate of the dollar may drop to 7% next year

Morgan Stanley analyst, drew attention to the fact that the ratio of U.S. current account to GDP, unemployment, budget deficit ratio to GDP, in order of importance, are the most important factors in the overall dynamics of the U.S. dollar. As noted in the bank, if you look at data from 1974, the current indicators point to a 91-percent probability of reducing the real exchange rate of U.S. dollar by 7 percent or more over the next year. However, that decline is likely to be controlled, in part due to the fact that U.S. currency has no real rival for the role of reserve currency - given the amount of liquidity, asset markets in the euro area is still lagging behind the U.S., as a consequence, the economies of Eurozone harder to absorb large inflows of additional capital. In addition, add in the bank, nobody is interested in the crisis of the U.S. dollar, which may lead to the adoption, where appropriate, coordinated action to avoid the occurrence of such events.

BNP Paribas: euro / dollar could reach a maximum in September 2008

Currency strategist BNP Paribas believes that the single European currency may strengthen against the dollar to $ 1.4866 level, after this week, couple was able to overcome the maximum in December 2008 at $ 1.4720. The bank believes that the euro / dollar will rise to their highest level since September last year, despite the fact that the technical indicators suggest a growing overbought pair. Unsustainable growth in the past week is likely to continue: "Breakthrough above the December high of $ 1.4720 opens the way for a couple to long-term resistance at $ 1.4866 (maximum in September 2008). As long as the euro / dollar holding above support at $ 1.4640 (intraday minimum of 16 September) growth may continue, despite the extreme conditions overbought pair. Nevertheless, trends in euro / dollar suggests that the recent growth in the European currency, possibly nearing completion - a 14-day RSI is above the level of 70, suggesting a possible reduction couples. Currently, the euro / dollar traded at $ 1.4700.

Barclays Capital: dollar / franc moves in the short-term downward trend

As noted by analysts Barclays Capital, pair dollar / franc moves in the short-term downward trend, while not yet passed the resistance at 1.0370, possibly reducing the level of 1.0210 and then to parity. Nevertheless, the 9-day relative strength indicator (RSI) is now in oversold territory, and bank analysts are increasingly worried soaring. Any break above the 1.0370 level may lead to upward movement to a mark of 1.05, with which, believe the bank should begin to sell a couple. At the moment pair dollar / franc traded at 1.0303.