Negative economic statistics supported the dollar

News from the United States was not the most positive and unexpected drop in the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board to 53.4 to 47.7 points and the index of business activity FRB Richmond from 14 to 7 points in October, provoked a weakening appetite for risk. As a result, the euro / dollar struck support at $ 1.4840 and fell to fresh session lows around $ 1.4788, where bids placed up to $ 1.4785, while holding back the onslaught of the bears. Meanwhile, the pound / dollar, even before the publication of the report demonstrated the onset of weakness, broke the defense of the bulls at $ 1.6350, and returned to bids near the Asian session lows.

BNY Mellon: the British pound could stabilize near current levels

Recently, analysts Bank of New York Mellon quite confidently declared that the bearish mood of the British pound. But now the bank waiting for stabilization of the currency of Great Britain near current levels. According to the Bank's strategy to further weakening of the pound - this is the last thing the British government wishes. In addition, published on Friday, weak GDP data may be incorrect and, therefore, further expansion of the program of quantitative easing of the Bank of England does not look quite definitely. Nevertheless, bank analysts pay attention to rumors about the revision of the credit rating of the UK, in connection with which there may well be grounds for returning to the bear's prognosis. Now pound / dollar is at 1.6337, euro / pound is trading at around 0.9193.

Euro / dollar again near 1.50

Today is the first time in 14 months, the euro / dollar rose above 1.50 marks - a growing optimism about the recovery of the world economy has boosted demand for risky assets to the detriment of the American currency. Analysts said Bank of New York Mellon, this break above 1.50 is of great psychological value, and opens the way for further growth of the pair, who expects the majority of market participants. Strategists RBC Capital Markets also pay attention to the importance of the breakthrough level of 1.50 and note that the closing today above this mark will greatly enhance a bullish mood. At the moment, the euro / dollar is at 1.4994. Couple overcame resistance around $ 1.4980 and yet continuing to try to rise to Ofer, who reportedly dealers located in the area of $ 1.5000/15 ($ 1.5001 - 61.8% from $ 1.5036/1.4945, $ 1.5015 - 76.4%). In the case of a break above these levels of couple can grow to the maximum of the Asian session around $ 1.5036, while the next resistance will make the region $ 1.5045/50 ($ 1.5047 - a maximum of the New York session). Support remains at around $ 1.4945/40 with an intermediate interest in the neighborhood of $ 1.4965.

the Data from UK have supported the pound

Net public sector borrowing in September reached a record high, but were slightly above forecasts. The need for public sector cash flow in September also proved to be a record, but also below analysts' forecasts. Costs continue to rise by around 5% per year, however, with tax revenues falling by 10%. Despite the fact that the outlook for the UK is improving, the recovery had been sluggish, and tax revenues in the foreseeable future is likely to continue to fall, and in the absence of action by the state budget deficit continues to grow. Couple pound / dollar recovered from lows near $ 1.6352 level and in anticipation of release of data on the UK traded at $ 1.6380 - after these couple rose to the level of $ 1.6405. Then the pair fell to $ 1.6380. Ofer located on the approach to $ 1.6400 (50% from $ 1.6447 - $ 1.6352), the interest is observed near the level of $ 1.6410 (61.8%) - in case of a breakthrough is possible to increase the mark of $ 1.6425 (76.4%). A strong interest is noted on the approach to the level of $ 1.6450 (previously achieved a maximum of $ 1.6447). Stops are marked above the level of $ 1.6450. Support is still near $ 1.6350. Euro / pound adjusted highs of stg0.9151, reached in early European session, and has declined to support in stg0.9125/20. Breakthrough below this level will lead to a further decline to a minimum on a pair of stg0.9105. Ofer located from the level stg0.9150 until stg0.9160.

Euphoria over the corporate reporting continues

Currently scheduled reports earnings Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Google. If the results exceed expectations, stock markets continue to rise.

Bank "JPMorgan" yesterday issued a strong quarterly report, which, together with the report "Intel" has become the main acting force growth on the stock exchanges. Income Statement JPM consisted of two parts: the investment bank recorded record revenue, but the strongest credit division had suffered losses and signaled a possible new losses.
The current strengthening of equity markets was strong enough, but the lack of internal corporate customers and increased demand for funds with fixed income indicate that the rally outliving itself; until the 2009 fixed-income funds have attracted 18 times more investment than stocks.
Results of the printed record of the Federal Committee on Peacekeeping Operations on the open market in the U.S. triggered selling of the dollar, as the majority of committee members were in favor of an increase in purchase of assets to stimulate economic recovery.

Saxo Bank

Retail sales in the U.S. fell by 1.5% in September

The volume of retail sales in the U.S. fell in September to 1.5%, but the figure excluding auto sales showed strong growth.
The level of retail sales of $ 344.7 billion in September was at 5.7% lower than the figure in the corresponding period last year.
During the period, sales of vehicles fell immediately on 10,4%. Retail sales excluding auto sales rose in September at 0.5%.

Data on retail sales have supported the dollar

The report on retail sales drop in September, which turned out to be weaker than analysts expected has had a positive impact on the dollar, which currently continues to demonstrate the desire to recover some losses . However, dealers noted that interest in selling the U.S. currency is still strong enough to keep her from the more active correction. Currency strategists RBS, meanwhile, see the risks of further dollar decline, given the continuing concerns that the situation in the economy for some time will not allow the Fed to start raising rates. In particular, they are advised to pay attention to is not the most positive comments Fed Vice Chair Donald Kohn, which meant the unlikelihood of rate increases over a fairly long period of time.

Dollar / Canada is falling rapidly after the publication of data on the labor market

Breakthrough of the lower boundary of the consolidation range in dollar / Canada a few days ago has become a very negative signal for the bulls, and while the decline then slowed, the continued weakening of the U.S. currency supported by the persistence of negative mood on the pair. The fall of the dollar index to a fresh yearly lows yesterday allowed the dollar / Canada to break through to C $ 1.0500, as published today, data on the labor market in Canada have to be that impetus for further growth of the Canadian currency, which has been waiting for many bulls on it. Growth in employment of 30 600 jobs six times surpassed analysts' expectations, while the drop in the unemployment rate from 8.7% to 8.4% in September also proved to be a pleasant surprise, and now the dollar / Canada holds about C $ 1.0440. Option barriers at C $ 1.0450 have been passed, and now hold only a couple of drop bids around C $ 1.0440/30, break below which will open the way to C $ 1.0400. Meanwhile, dealers noted that in general the dollar / Canada looks like propensity to fall in the direction of C $ 1.03.

BMO Capital Markets: U.S. / Canada remains under pressure

Canadian dollar is now showing is not too good results compared with other currencies - a pair dollar / Canada again retreated from yesterday's 1.0533 low and established a sessional maximum on the level of 1.0576. As the currency analysts BMO Capital Markets, charts continue to indicate that the decrease in dollar / Canada is exhausted, but, in general, the pair continues to remain under pressure. As part of the downward movement of the dollar / Canadian bank's strategists believed that the region will 1.0480/1.0500 good initial support for the pair, after which the dollar / Canada falls to a level of 1.0350. Initial resistance in the pair are 1.0700 and 1.0750 levels. At the moment pair dollar / Canada is trading at around 1.0555.

Citigroup maintains its short position in the pair AUD / CAD

Recent statistics have shown that the strengthening Canadian dollar on the Forex market has not brought the damage to the economy, which was expected, experts said Citigroup. "In addition, the Canadian dollar should benefit from favorable to his expectations on rates (approx. Profinance.ru: Meeting of the Bank of Canada October 20). We maintain our short position in the pair AUD / CAD", - added strategists Citi.

Commerzbank warns of fall in the dollar / yen to 86.15

dollar / yen is below the 60.50 level and its reduction requires the achievement of an objective mark of 87.60, which is a 14-year support and the recent minimum, said Karen Jones, a technical analyst at Commerzbank. "It is possible to reduce to 86.15. This mark - the current value of very long key line. We would have expected some signs of correction here," - adds to its expert's thoughts Commerzbank.

The Canadian dollar reached new highs

Canadian dollar today shows very good results, and, as noted currency analysts BMO Capital Markets, the status of commodity currencies is in the process, not the least role. Strengthening the Canadian dollar against other commodity currencies is not very significant, but relative to other currencies, the Canadian dollar has grown quite well - from 0.2% to 1.0%. As a pair of dollar / Canada, today it finally dropped below the recent low of 1.0590. Meanwhile, analysts TD Securities noted that the decline in dollar / Canada to new lows in 2009 threatened a key short-term area of support 1.0550/60. The bank believes that the breakthrough this area will demonstrate the readiness of the market to reach new lows for the pair, while the bank did not rule out the fall of the dollar / Canada in the 2008 range 0.9800 - 1.0300 in the next one to three months. At the moment pair dollar / Canada is trading at 1.0567.

The dollar remains under pressure

While some officials of oil-producing countries today has since denied reports about plans to change currency calculations that appeared in the Independent, currency strategist at Westpac notes that certain elements of truth in this report still contained. However, the bank noted that the withdrawal from the dollar will happen much later than in 2018, given the technical difficulties of this transition and the problems associated with liquidity and pricing oil based on a basket of currencies. In addition, the collapse of the dollar does not reflect the interests of oil producers, and selling the dollar against the backdrop of this news, according to Westpac, are unfounded. The U.S. currency, however, after a pause again came under pressure, which is now more noticeable in a couple of pound. Bulls on the pound / dollar trying to get higher if Offered $ 1.6020/25 in the area (rumored to above $ 1.6030 stops are located), and the success of this enterprise will rely on the continued growth to $ 1.6045/50 and $ 1.6070, and then to $ 1.6120/30.

Big Seven did not give reason for buying the dollar

The result of meeting of the G7 in the past week has been a communiqué in which, once again, it was noted that the random movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability, while comments on the dollar weakness was observed. This fact, analysts said Bank of America-Merrill Lynch allows us to suppose that in the current circumstances the U.S. currency will continue to experience difficulties when trying to consolidate their positions, and they expect to maintain pressure in particular against the European and commodity currencies. Meanwhile, without much enthusiasm about the prospects of the dollar and talk of Goldman Sachs. Senior economist at Bank of Dominic Wilson notes that the decline in markets over the past few weeks has resulted in improved correlation potential income and risk, and overall macroeconomic situation is favorable for the risky assets in the short term. However, he acknowledges that make possible a strong catalyst for yet difficult. These may be the data on income for the third quarter, but still premature to speak clearly.

Pound was under pressure from the start of trading in Europe

Pound / dollar, which began Monday with the positive attitude and more recently Offer of $ 1.6020/30, now shows an active reduction and kept about $ 1.5937, which dealers attributed to large sales of foreign currency British clearing bank, but they also indicate that support for the latter have buy euro / pound French bank that helped the pair to rise to around Ofer stg0.9175. Interested in buying a pound noticeable about $ 1.5940/30, but dealers do not rule out a break below and the further reduction to $ 1.5905/00 and $ 1.5880, although it is not expected to significantly change the situation in a pair of paying attention to the existence of the preconditions for the continuation of consolidation in the range of $ 1.6150 - $ 1.5750. Ofer now congregate around $ 1.5970, further interest in selling noticeable around $ 1.6000 and at around $ 1.6020/30. Ofer on euro / pound saved in the field stg0.9175/80, as well as in the area of stg0.9195/05 feet above stg0.9210, while bids are about stg0.9140 and stg0.9120.

The data on employment in the U.S. was disappointed

The disappointing data on employment in the U.S. in September led to a lower level of acceptable risk in the currency markets - as a result of currency-haven dollar and the yen began to rise and demand for higher-yielding currencies fell sharply. Euro / dollar fell below $ 1.4500, as the foot outweighed marked in this area demand. Below foot spotted near the level of $ 1.4470. According to traders, to continue the downward movement of the pair need to break the level of $ 1.4450. Couple pound / dollar also came under pressure, falling below $ 1.5860 to the sessional minimum around $ 1.5800 - at this level, an insignificant demand more bids are near the lows of the week at $ 1.5770. Dollar / yen against the backdrop of yield data down from Y89.45 below Y89.00. Ofer is located near the level of Y89.25. Euro / yen after the data has fallen from a mark Y130.00 below 200-day moving average - is the first time since May this year, the couple can close below this level.

Euro / dollar raised after ADP report

Euro / dollar strengthened slightly after the ADP report on the labor market in the United States. It is expected that the pressure on the dollar will continue today against the background of fixed positions, with the ADP data do nothing to alleviate their fate. Couple holding in the previous session highs at 1.4673. Offer noted at 1.4680/85.

Central Bank of Russia lowered the refinancing rate by 0.5%

Department external and public relations of Bank of Russia informs, that the Board of Directors of Bank of Russia, 29 September 2009 decided to reduce from 30 September 2009 the Bank of Russia refinancing rate by 0.5 percentage points to 10%, as well as interest rate cuts by the Bank of Russia Operations at 0.25-0.75 percentage points.

Over two decades in September 2009 consumer prices in Russia remained stable, which corresponds to the accumulated since the beginning of this year, inflation of 8.1% compared to 10.2% during the same period in 2008. During the period this month, inflation continued to decline in annual terms: on September 21 its level was 11.0% (in August - 11.6%). Given that the factors associated with constraints on the part of domestic demand and the ruble money supply will continue to exert a positive influence on the dynamics of consumer prices, and because of substantial lessening of devaluation expectations, the Bank of Russia continues to assess the tendency to reduce the rate of inflation as stable in the absence of fundamental reasons, which could accelerate the growth of prices in the remaining months of 2009 compared to their dynamics in 2008.

Although the Bank of Russia made the decision to reduce the refinancing rate, which reduced the interest rates, interbank market, interest rates on loans to real sector of the economy remain relatively high. Index of industrial production fell in August compared to July 2009. Total credit economy in September this year, virtually unchanged. Thus, interest rate policy of Bank of Russia aimed at developing positive trends in the economy and, above all, in the credit activity of the banking sector. Follow the Bank of Russia to reduce interest rates will be determined by the need to create conditions for the expansion of credit and stimulate economic growth with the development of inflationary trends.

Rate Russia's ruble has responded to this event growing in relation to the dollar. On the interbank market has been tested by a mark 30.05. Currently, however, the dollar / ruble rebounded by 5 cents and climbed to 30.10.

Calyon continues to sell euro / pound

Reversal pattern that had started on the chart euros / pounds on Tuesday, according to strategists Calyon, is a signal about the potential of the medium peaks form, with the confirmation of their fears was the fall of a pair of lower support at stg0.9024. In addition, the bank drew attention to the fact that today's minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England rates was not as negative for the pound, as many expected, but the fundamental factors and does appear to be more positive than before. At Calyon notes that the model estimates the fair value of the British currency at purchasing power parity basis points to a strong pound undervalued, and they prefer to continue its purchases against the euro.

Commerzbank holds a positive forecast for the euro / franc

Euro / franc today reached a new weekly low of 1.5121, however, according to currency analysts Commerzbank, it does not alter the positive outlook for the pair. Bank strategists believe that in future the couple are unlikely to fall below the minimum 9 July, at the level of 1.5110 - the bank expected growth in the euro / franc to the maximum of 27 August at 1.5244 and then to the maximum on Aug. 10 at around 1.5340. Now the euro / franc traded at 1.5125.