President of Russia Vladimir Putin announced the need to increase the gross domestic product (GDP) doubled. At the time, doubling adopted similar programs in other countries, for example, in Japan. But then the Japanese were talking about a doubling of national income.
The program of five steps
Japanese program «doubling national income» took place at 60-years and is one of the most famous of all the programs and plans at any time taken in Tokyo. In December 1960, the Government Khayata Ikeda (1960-1964) has set a target to achieve growth rates of 7.2% per year and doubling the national income (ND) for the years 1961/62-1970/71. However, on their own rapid economic growth was not the plan itself. The country had to achieve sustainable high economic growth, improve living standards of the population of the islands, to try to achieve full employment. The program identified five key areas to improve the Japanese economy and society. First, the planned replenishment of social capital. It is connected with the fact that housing and other social standards in Japan at that time considerably lagged behind prevailing in other developed countries. Japanese apartments, for example, because of their narrowness called «rabbit cells» (usagi goya - auth.).
Secondly, conspiring to improving industrial structure. The country faced the task of prioritizing the development of emerging industries. In the third place, declares support for trade and international economic cooperation. The significance of this provision determined by Japan's dependence on imported energy and raw materials and exports of industrial products to pay for imports. The fourth, the authorities have expressed concern about raising human capabilities and the promotion of science and technology. If Japan was able to borrow extensively abroad, new technologies, the 60-ies it zamayachila need to create something. In the fifth, it was streamlining the dual structure of Japanese economy and the strengthening of social stability. In Japan, many small businesses depend on large companies that sell products. For small businesses worse conditions of employment, labor, lower wages, etc. In the figures the program has meant that by 1970 the GDP of Japan in prices in 1958 was up 26 trillion. yen, and ND - 208 thousand yen per capita. Regular balance of payments at the end of the plan period was to reach $ 0.18 billion in the plan also enunciated the state's responsibility for promoting public sector through the implementation of long-term investment projects. At the same time expected to bring the ratio of public and private investment from 1:3 to 1:2. Growth in consumer prices is not planned, but has averaged 5.7%. In programming the methods used to estimate growth rates. In other words, the government planned growth rate of GDP, based on their political attitudes. The calculation of the remaining indicators produced by the rate of growth through structural equations, which does not, however, is an integrated model.
Real life and plans differed
The real growth rate of removing the beginning of the 60-ies of the Japanese economy accounted for 10.7%. Thus, the Government's goal of doubling the ND was made much earlier than expected. The positive balance of payments also grew faster than planned, and by early 70-ies to $ 2.36 billion And real life, and government plans were at variance as soon as the program was adopted to act.
In 1961 the economy experienced an investment boom. Investments in the private sector grew by 40%, which was much higher than government expectations. The boom has led to growth in the years 1961-1963 averaged 11%. However, they have evolved unevenly. For example, if in 1961 the GNP grew by 14.9%, in 1962 - only 5%. Moreover, from December 1961 to October 1962 industry experienced a downturn, the volume of production increased by only 0.9%. Then came growth. However, in October 1964 the economy back into a 11-month recession. During this time, industrial output fell by 0.2%, underloading production capacity has reached 23.9%. Down domestic sales decreased investment. There has been a serious increase in the number of bankruptcies of small businesses. On the stock market enjoyed depression.
The government was forced to take incentives. For example, in 1965, three times declined the discount rate was lowered taxes on corporations and the income tax. For the first time in the postwar period, Japan resorted to deficit financing. As a result, by the end of 1965, has a way out of crisis. The problem was the growth in prices. In 1965 it was 6%, while in the program laid only 2.5%. Then, the growth rate has exceeded the planned outline. In 1967/68-70/71 of the real growth rate of 13%. However, slow growth of public funds. Consumer prices rose at 6.7%, wholesale prices also showed a tendency to rise. These are summarized the results of decades of planning.
Problems faced by Government
Economists identify several challenges faced by the Japanese Government during the implementation of the program «the doubling of national income». First, the discrepancy between planned and actual growth of national economy. In part this is due to the imperfections of existing techniques at the time of such plans. However, this discrepancy appeared later in the other plans.
Secondly, during the execution of the plan revealed significant regional disparities. For example, the major differences between the level of development of the East (D) and western (less developed) coast. Increased income gap between urban and rural populations. The mass relocation of rural residents to larger cities has led to overcrowding in the major industrial centers such as Tokyo, Osaka, and raised the cost of living in cities. As a result, today, Tokyo and Osaka have «honorable» status for the most expensive cities in the world. And thirdly, a number of old industries, especially coal mining and textiles, have been virtually out of the boom. Preserved the dual economic structure, that is, continued to co-exist effectively large and ineffective small production. And fourthly, the difference in the sectoral level and pace of productivity growth led to inflation and increase in consumer prices.
In the fifth, demonstrated the apparent unevenness of economic growth for years. In the Sixth, the government actions to encourage or deter the production has not kept pace with cyclical changes in reality. In the Seventh, in some years the rapid growth of investment has led to an equally rapid increase in imports of industrial equipment and the associated deterioration of the country's balance of payments.
Plans are adjusted
In 1962, the Government was forced to start adjusting their plans. As a result, cabinet Eysaku Sato (1964-1972) adopted a comprehensive national development plan for 1964/65-68/69 years. This document is regarded as «provincial» Option Plan «doubling national income». It has been given the task of eliminating regional disparities of rapid development. It draws first econometric models were used, including a model of inter-sectoral balance Basil Leontieva.
Government measures to liberalize foreign trade and raised in this context, concerns about possible increased competition led to the creation of the next economic and social development plan for 1967/68-71/72 years. It establishes the emphasis on the development of social infrastructure and stable economic growth. Once again the government's actions have been adjusted in 1969, the new plan was aimed at the twenty years. He entered Japan in the 70's. In 1973, the world's energy crisis, and repeated increases in oil prices finally summed up the post-war phase of the development of the country's economy.
Now the question can not be
The Japanese government supported a number of strategically important industries for the country. They have priority funding through the State and the preferential taxation. Support at the state level were the key sectors of national economy and production.
In the 60 years to the industry were identified as electronic engineering, certain types of general engineering, petrochemicals, oil refining, electric power and metallurgy. However, a number of support programs was adopted in relation to depressive industries such as coal and textile industries. Experience has shown that this type of policy, including development planning, has been very successful. In Japan, a modern branch structure of economy, efficiency is not inferior to other countries. The country has become the second economic power in its power in the world. But later, in 90 years, have felt the accumulated distortions. Since then, Japan could not break out of stagnation. It seems that the country has developed rapidly until the leading industry-related product manufacturing. As soon as the Japanese have taken a great interest of financial and land speculation, the collapse occurred. Economic growth has slowed. Now the question can not be a doubling of national income in ten years. This may be, and is only a restructuring of the Japanese economy, maintaining exports at best - to moderate growth.
In this sense, to the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, declared the need to increase the gross domestic product (GDP) doubled, is «nepahanoe field». Many industrial structures in Russia have been eliminated, many have not yet been established. Stock and financial markets are at an early stage of development. Land in Russia a lot, and price speculation with it on such a scale, as occurred in Japan, to introduce today is practically impossible.
The program of five steps
Japanese program «doubling national income» took place at 60-years and is one of the most famous of all the programs and plans at any time taken in Tokyo. In December 1960, the Government Khayata Ikeda (1960-1964) has set a target to achieve growth rates of 7.2% per year and doubling the national income (ND) for the years 1961/62-1970/71. However, on their own rapid economic growth was not the plan itself. The country had to achieve sustainable high economic growth, improve living standards of the population of the islands, to try to achieve full employment. The program identified five key areas to improve the Japanese economy and society. First, the planned replenishment of social capital. It is connected with the fact that housing and other social standards in Japan at that time considerably lagged behind prevailing in other developed countries. Japanese apartments, for example, because of their narrowness called «rabbit cells» (usagi goya - auth.).
Secondly, conspiring to improving industrial structure. The country faced the task of prioritizing the development of emerging industries. In the third place, declares support for trade and international economic cooperation. The significance of this provision determined by Japan's dependence on imported energy and raw materials and exports of industrial products to pay for imports. The fourth, the authorities have expressed concern about raising human capabilities and the promotion of science and technology. If Japan was able to borrow extensively abroad, new technologies, the 60-ies it zamayachila need to create something. In the fifth, it was streamlining the dual structure of Japanese economy and the strengthening of social stability. In Japan, many small businesses depend on large companies that sell products. For small businesses worse conditions of employment, labor, lower wages, etc. In the figures the program has meant that by 1970 the GDP of Japan in prices in 1958 was up 26 trillion. yen, and ND - 208 thousand yen per capita. Regular balance of payments at the end of the plan period was to reach $ 0.18 billion in the plan also enunciated the state's responsibility for promoting public sector through the implementation of long-term investment projects. At the same time expected to bring the ratio of public and private investment from 1:3 to 1:2. Growth in consumer prices is not planned, but has averaged 5.7%. In programming the methods used to estimate growth rates. In other words, the government planned growth rate of GDP, based on their political attitudes. The calculation of the remaining indicators produced by the rate of growth through structural equations, which does not, however, is an integrated model.
Real life and plans differed
The real growth rate of removing the beginning of the 60-ies of the Japanese economy accounted for 10.7%. Thus, the Government's goal of doubling the ND was made much earlier than expected. The positive balance of payments also grew faster than planned, and by early 70-ies to $ 2.36 billion And real life, and government plans were at variance as soon as the program was adopted to act.
In 1961 the economy experienced an investment boom. Investments in the private sector grew by 40%, which was much higher than government expectations. The boom has led to growth in the years 1961-1963 averaged 11%. However, they have evolved unevenly. For example, if in 1961 the GNP grew by 14.9%, in 1962 - only 5%. Moreover, from December 1961 to October 1962 industry experienced a downturn, the volume of production increased by only 0.9%. Then came growth. However, in October 1964 the economy back into a 11-month recession. During this time, industrial output fell by 0.2%, underloading production capacity has reached 23.9%. Down domestic sales decreased investment. There has been a serious increase in the number of bankruptcies of small businesses. On the stock market enjoyed depression.
The government was forced to take incentives. For example, in 1965, three times declined the discount rate was lowered taxes on corporations and the income tax. For the first time in the postwar period, Japan resorted to deficit financing. As a result, by the end of 1965, has a way out of crisis. The problem was the growth in prices. In 1965 it was 6%, while in the program laid only 2.5%. Then, the growth rate has exceeded the planned outline. In 1967/68-70/71 of the real growth rate of 13%. However, slow growth of public funds. Consumer prices rose at 6.7%, wholesale prices also showed a tendency to rise. These are summarized the results of decades of planning.
Problems faced by Government
Economists identify several challenges faced by the Japanese Government during the implementation of the program «the doubling of national income». First, the discrepancy between planned and actual growth of national economy. In part this is due to the imperfections of existing techniques at the time of such plans. However, this discrepancy appeared later in the other plans.
Secondly, during the execution of the plan revealed significant regional disparities. For example, the major differences between the level of development of the East (D) and western (less developed) coast. Increased income gap between urban and rural populations. The mass relocation of rural residents to larger cities has led to overcrowding in the major industrial centers such as Tokyo, Osaka, and raised the cost of living in cities. As a result, today, Tokyo and Osaka have «honorable» status for the most expensive cities in the world. And thirdly, a number of old industries, especially coal mining and textiles, have been virtually out of the boom. Preserved the dual economic structure, that is, continued to co-exist effectively large and ineffective small production. And fourthly, the difference in the sectoral level and pace of productivity growth led to inflation and increase in consumer prices.
In the fifth, demonstrated the apparent unevenness of economic growth for years. In the Sixth, the government actions to encourage or deter the production has not kept pace with cyclical changes in reality. In the Seventh, in some years the rapid growth of investment has led to an equally rapid increase in imports of industrial equipment and the associated deterioration of the country's balance of payments.
Plans are adjusted
In 1962, the Government was forced to start adjusting their plans. As a result, cabinet Eysaku Sato (1964-1972) adopted a comprehensive national development plan for 1964/65-68/69 years. This document is regarded as «provincial» Option Plan «doubling national income». It has been given the task of eliminating regional disparities of rapid development. It draws first econometric models were used, including a model of inter-sectoral balance Basil Leontieva.
Government measures to liberalize foreign trade and raised in this context, concerns about possible increased competition led to the creation of the next economic and social development plan for 1967/68-71/72 years. It establishes the emphasis on the development of social infrastructure and stable economic growth. Once again the government's actions have been adjusted in 1969, the new plan was aimed at the twenty years. He entered Japan in the 70's. In 1973, the world's energy crisis, and repeated increases in oil prices finally summed up the post-war phase of the development of the country's economy.
Now the question can not be
The Japanese government supported a number of strategically important industries for the country. They have priority funding through the State and the preferential taxation. Support at the state level were the key sectors of national economy and production.
In the 60 years to the industry were identified as electronic engineering, certain types of general engineering, petrochemicals, oil refining, electric power and metallurgy. However, a number of support programs was adopted in relation to depressive industries such as coal and textile industries. Experience has shown that this type of policy, including development planning, has been very successful. In Japan, a modern branch structure of economy, efficiency is not inferior to other countries. The country has become the second economic power in its power in the world. But later, in 90 years, have felt the accumulated distortions. Since then, Japan could not break out of stagnation. It seems that the country has developed rapidly until the leading industry-related product manufacturing. As soon as the Japanese have taken a great interest of financial and land speculation, the collapse occurred. Economic growth has slowed. Now the question can not be a doubling of national income in ten years. This may be, and is only a restructuring of the Japanese economy, maintaining exports at best - to moderate growth.
In this sense, to the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, declared the need to increase the gross domestic product (GDP) doubled, is «nepahanoe field». Many industrial structures in Russia have been eliminated, many have not yet been established. Stock and financial markets are at an early stage of development. Land in Russia a lot, and price speculation with it on such a scale, as occurred in Japan, to introduce today is practically impossible.
Alexei Sokolov
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