Forex. In anticipation of fateful decisions of the ECB

European trading session for the dollar quite ambivalent: he managed to strengthen against the pound and Australian dollar, but surrendered the position against the yen. We live under the laws of interest to the risk, therefore, positive economic statistics will result in an increase in the stock markets, and as a consequence, sales of the dollar and the yen and buying euros and pounds. Thus, the euro / dollar at the beginning of the day reached a new monthly highs at 1.3439. Published this week on business activity in the manufacturing sectors in Europe, China and India, as well as an unexpected increase in sales in the secondary housing market in the United States became a cause for celebration in the markets, istoskovavshihsya of good news. Now everything suggests that the worst may already be behind us, and in the future the situation will only stabilize. However, publication of data on an index of producer prices in the euro area in March brought about changes. Indicator of the annual ratio fell by 3.1% - this is the most significant drop over the past 22 years, which once again attracted the attention of investors to the scheduled meeting this Thursday and the ECB rate decision. It is expected to be reduced by 25 basis points to 1%. Strengthening the deflationary trend in the level of producer prices increased the risk of diversion of the European Central Bank's policy of quantitative easing. However, according to the International Monetary Fund, the risks of deflation in the euro area is considerably lower than in the United States or Japan. This gives management the European Bank for more space to maneuver, and lets not deviate from the selected hard-line behavior. ECB meeting this week may become the catalyst that either ascend to the euro to new heights, or to bring down to the next level. Since October last year the Bank cut rates by 300 basis points to a record low 1.25%. However, despite the euro is still among the most profitable rate, because the rest of the Central Bank, too, hurried to ease monetary policy. Now many wonder whether the ECB will be able to keep its stake at a relatively high level compared with the rates of other developed countries, and how to begin the process of recovery. Despite the Bank's caution and reluctance to use unconventional steps to maintain the banking sector, the risks of aggravating the recession in the euro area to put it on a par with the rest, in particular with the United States, Japan and Britain. No reduction in rates, as such, namely the shift to quantitative easing (or waived) will be the main catalyst for movements. Today the market is also in awe, waiting for the long-awaited publication of the results of stress tests for a number of American banks. This explains the nervousness in the market and volatility dynamics. The Wall Street Journal today published an article which stated that 10 of the 19 banks that have passed the stress test, need for additional funding. Despite the fact that this information has the status of rumors, investors took it as a reason for the reduction of risk positions, which, respectively, contributed to the strengthening of the dollar.