Friday, July 31, 2009

BBH: specifies whether the further course of the U.S. GDP?

The main two events of today are the U.S. GDP for the 2 square. and adjustment of the position against the backdrop of the end of the month. According to analysts BBH, if the forecasts of economists and investors are too optimistic or too pessimistic, it is likely that GDP will be lower than expected. The rate of decline of stocks has fallen, and now the main influence on the GDP has a "change in change" stocks. This figure is difficult to predict, and therefore, there can be quite a surprise. It may surprise net exports. American consumers continue to refuse to loan funds, but given the decline in consumption growth in unemployment leads to a decrease in imports. Even if all of these risks materialize, and the GDP of 2 sq. km. will be lower than expected, it does not further clarify the direction of the U.S. dollar. The latest trend is that the good economic performance meets the weakening dollar, as investors and speculators switched to more risky assets. Yet, taking into account the flow of generally positive news, a pair of Euro / dollar this week is not happy growth, as it says on the possible extinction trend. If you consider that the European currency is in a wide range, then this week it was tested near the lower limit of 1.40, which could prevent further decline in euro / dollar. Short-term indicators signal that both the euro and the pound today, may become stronger against the dollar. Dollar against the yen is stable, but indicators suggest that the set yesterday, a three-week high at 95.88 would be difficult to overcome. Given all this, a correction of the positions in anticipation of the end of the month is now the joker.

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